Demacia Cup

A walk-forward test of the model on an event it never saw.

Model test. The Demacia Cup Global Invitational (03 to 17/10/2026, China, patch 26.18) is 12 teams that missed Worlds. These picks were generated after the event from a model fitted only on games before 03/10/2026, so they are a walk-forward check, not predictions we made in advance.

Series graded152 of them Bo5
Winners right13 / 1587%
Model log loss0.450lower is better
Baselines0.470region rule (stronger region wins 70%); coin flip 0.693

15 hand-compiled series; event still in progress and the file is partial (Swiss R3/R4, other QFs, SF/Final not found as of 15/10/2026); DCGI teams are those that missed Worlds Generated 16/10/2026 12:13 NZDT, fit on games before 03/10/2026.

Series

Picks from the walk-forward fit
DateStageTeamsPickTierScore callActualLog loss
03/10/2026Swiss Round 1REDvNAVINAVI 57%COIN FLIP1-0RED 1-0miss0.842
03/10/2026Swiss Round 1LGDvFLYLGD 63%LEAN1-0LGD 1-0hit0.462
03/10/2026Swiss Round 1KTvSRKT 80%LOCK1-0KT 1-0hit0.223
03/10/2026Swiss Round 1BNKvVITBNK 72%LEAN1-0BNK 1-0hit0.324
03/10/2026Swiss Round 1WEvGAMWE 69%LEAN1-0WE 1-0hit0.365
03/10/2026Swiss Round 1BROvJDGBRO 52%COIN FLIP1-0BRO 1-0hit0.648
04/10/2026Swiss Round 2 (1-0)BNKvLGDBNK 65%LEAN2-0BNK 2-1hit0.433
04/10/2026Swiss Round 2 (1-0)KTvREDKT 85%LOCK2-0KT 2-0hit0.161
04/10/2026Swiss Round 2 (1-0)WEvBROBRO 58%COIN FLIP2-0WE 2-1miss0.879
05/10/2026Swiss Round 2 (0-1)VITvGAMVIT 60%COIN FLIP2-0VIT 2-0hit0.511
05/10/2026Swiss Round 2 (0-1)NAVIvFLYNAVI 52%COIN FLIP2-0NAVI 2-0hit0.659
05/10/2026Swiss Round 2 (0-1)JDGvSRJDG 80%LOCK2-0JDG 2-0hit0.225
06/10/2026Swiss Round 3 (1-1)BROvNAVIBRO 73%LEAN2-0BRO 2-1hit0.312
12/10/2026QuarterfinalKTvVITKT 82%LOCK3-0KT 3-2hit0.193
12/10/2026QuarterfinalBNKvJDGBNK 60%COIN FLIP3-0BNK 3-2hit0.512

By region pairing

Stronger fitted region named first
PairingSeriesStronger region wonModel right
LCK v CBLOL111
LCK v LCS111
LCK v LEC333
LCK v LPL433
LEC v CBLOL100
LEC v LCP111
LEC v LCS111
LPL v LCP111
LPL v LCS222