Play-In
LIVE- Dates
- 16 to 19/10/2026 NZDT (15 to 18/10 in Los Angeles)
- Venue
- Riot Games Arena, Los Angeles
- Format
- Four teams, double elimination, every series Bo5, no bracket reset in the final. The final winner goes to Swiss as a Tier 4 team.
- Draft
- Fearless Draft in all six series.
- Pick'Ems lock
- 16/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (15/10 11:00 PDT)
Frozen baseline, predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT and never edited since.
Latest staged run (playin), predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Stages not yet re-run show the frozen baseline.
Today
16/10/2026, NZDTBracket
Riot Games Arena, Los AngelesEach card shows the favourite, its win chance, and the odds of every winning score; the bold score is the single most likely one and is what gets graded.
Play-In R1 · 16/10/2026 07:00
KCv
C9KC 62%LEAN3-0 27%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 38%Result: KC 3-2pick right
KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In R1 · 16/10/2026 12:00 (started)
FURIAv
MVKFURIA 73%LEAN3-0 36%3-1 23%3-2 14%upset 27%
FURIA 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). FURIA win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); MVK win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In winners' match · 17/10/2026 07:00KCvFURIAKC 64%LEAN3-0 28%3-1 22%3-2 14%upset 36%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (28%). KC win by any score 64% (3-0 28%, 3-1 22%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 36%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In elimination match · 17/10/2026 12:00C9vMVKC9 75%LOCK3-0 38%3-1 24%3-2 13%upset 25%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (38%). C9 win by any score 75% (3-0 38%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); MVK win 25%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In lower final · 18/10/2026 07:00FURIAvC9C9 53%COIN FLIP3-0 21%3-1 18%3-2 14%upset 47%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (21%). C9 win by any score 53% (3-0 21%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 47%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In final · 19/10/2026 07:00KCvC9KC 62%LEAN3-0 27%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 38%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSeries
Tap a series for the reasoning16/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (15/10/2026 11:00 PDT)KCvC9Play-In R1KC 62% LEANScore call 3-0 (27%). 3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 38%.Result: KC 3-2, pick right
- Score call
- KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:26.5% 0-3:12.9% 3-1:20.9% 1-3:13.8% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.8%
- Key matchup
- Top lane: Canna (KC; domestic playoffs GD@15 +253, 16 solo kills, Rumble 8-2) vs Thanatos (C9; GD@15 -191, XPD@15 -223, Worlds debut). KC's early game runs through Canna and Yike (Vi 8-3); C9's jungler Blaber is the weakest early-game stat line of the four Play-In junglers on record (XPD@15 -496, CSD@15 -6.4).
- Draft angle
- KC's comforts Rumble, Vi and Seraphine/Rakan (Busio 12-3 combined) are the bans to watch; opponents banned Rumble 22% domestically. C9 lean on Blaber Nocturne (2-0) but Nocturne is a top-2 ban everywhere. Fearless Bo5 tests C9's thinner sampled pools (>=8 champions per player in an 11-game sample) more than KC's 13-19.
- Form and context
- KC: 9-0 Summer regular season, then 1-3 G2 and 0-3 MSI in playoffs (1-6 in games), but EWC runner-up in July and 5-4 in 2026 international series. C9: 8-7 in Summer playoffs, ended with back-to-back 1-3 losses (TLAW, LYON). No 2026 head-to-head. If they meet again in the final it is a rematch of round 1 with KC coming from the winners' side.
- What flips it
- KC's baron control collapses internationally (26%). If C9 survive lane and drag games past 30 minutes, Vulcan's playmaking (KDA 7.3, 81.7% KP) and C9's 56% dragon / 60% herald control can win the long game, plus a home crowd in LA.
- Note
- Day 1 order disputed between outlets (KC-C9 or FURIA-MVK first); both start after the 11:00 PDT Pick'Ems lock.
| KC | 2026 season | C9 |
|---|---|---|
| 87W-51L | Record | 62W-45L |
| 63.0% | Win rate | 57.9% |
| 69.4% | Blue side | 65.4% |
| 57.9% | Red side | 50.9% |
| +367 | GD@15 | +349 |
| 51.4% | First blood | 57.0% |
| 58.0% | Dragon share | 56.3% |
| 55.6% | Baron share | 58.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 32.9 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg
16/10/2026 12:00 NZDT (15/10/2026 16:00 PDT) (started)FURIAvMVKPlay-In R1FURIA 73% LEANScore call 3-0 (36%). 3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%, upset 27%.
- Score call
- FURIA 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). FURIA win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); MVK win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:36.0% 0-3:7.9% 3-1:23.4% 1-3:9.7% 3-2:13.7% 2-3:9.3%
- Key matchup
- Jungle tempo: Tatu (FURIA; Split 1 Finals MVP, GD@15 +191, KDA 5.0) vs Gury (MVK; KDA 2.95 across 78 games). MVK's weakest link is top (Kratos KDA 1.88), which is where FURIA's Guigo (10 solo kills in Split 2 playoffs) plays.
- Draft angle
- No MVK champion data was found (UNKNOWN), so this is the series with the least draft information. FURIA's pools: Guigo wide (Ambessa/Olaf/Gwen), Tatu Xin Zhao/Trundle/Sejuani, Ayu Ezreal/Kalista/Yunara.
- Form and context
- FURIA: CBLOL runner-up after a 3-series lower-bracket run, 12-8 in games, but 0-4 in series at MSI/EWC. MVK: no official match since 29/08 (47 days), lost 0-3 and 1-3 to CFO in Split 3 playoffs. No head-to-head.
- What flips it
- MVK win if FURIA's lane-phase problems (MSI CSD@15 -41) show up and MVK's first-baron conversion (82% WR when first baron) gets games to the mid game even.
- Note
- Day 1 order disputed between outlets (KC-C9 or FURIA-MVK first); both start after the 11:00 PDT Pick'Ems lock.
| FURIA | 2026 season | MVK |
|---|---|---|
| 64W-38L | Record | 37W-44L |
| 62.7% | Win rate | 45.7% |
| 55.0% | Blue side | 50.0% |
| 67.7% | Red side | 44.3% |
| +150 | GD@15 | -148 |
| 53.9% | First blood | 51.9% |
| 56.6% | Dragon share | 52.3% |
| 65.3% | Baron share | 47.7% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 33.2 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): insider-gaming.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, accountshark.net
17/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (16/10/2026 11:00 PDT)KCvFURIAPlay-In winners' match (predicted pairing)KC 64% LEANScore call 3-0 (28%). 3-0 28%, 3-1 22%, 3-2 14%, upset 36%.
- Score call
- KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (28%). KC win by any score 64% (3-0 28%, 3-1 22%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 36%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:28.4% 0-3:11.7% 3-1:21.5% 1-3:12.9% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.3%
- Key matchup
- Same as the winners' match: KC's top-jungle early game (Canna +253, Yike Vi) vs FURIA's early skirmishing. Whoever wins the 15-minute gold race likely wins the game; KC's WR when ahead @15 is ~77% domestically.
- Draft angle
- Fifth meeting of Fearless pools for each team by now; KC's deeper sampled pools (13-19 champions per player) matter more in a rematch Bo5.
- Form and context
- Model (v4) has KC as the Play-In favourite at 49% (C9 24%, FURIA 24%, MVK 3%). No 2026 head-to-head. LEC vs CBLOL in 2026: 1-0 (G2 1-0 FURIA at EWC). FURIA 0-12 in games vs LCK/LPL/LEC teams this year; KC 11-12 in international games.
- What flips it
- A reverse sweep run from FURIA through the lower bracket would mean their domestic peak form has carried over; that is the main way the 35% hits.
- Note
- Pairing depends on R1 results; time slot order on 16/10 not confirmed.
| KC | 2026 season | FURIA |
|---|---|---|
| 87W-51L | Record | 64W-38L |
| 63.0% | Win rate | 62.7% |
| 69.4% | Blue side | 55.0% |
| 57.9% | Red side | 67.7% |
| +367 | GD@15 | +150 |
| 51.4% | First blood | 53.9% |
| 58.0% | Dragon share | 56.6% |
| 55.6% | Baron share | 65.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 33.1 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg
17/10/2026 12:00 NZDT (16/10/2026 16:00 PDT)C9vMVKPlay-In elimination match (predicted pairing)C9 75% LOCKScore call 3-0 (38%). 3-0 38%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%, upset 25%.
- Score call
- C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (38%). C9 win by any score 75% (3-0 38%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); MVK win 25%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:38.3% 0-3:7.0% 3-1:23.7% 1-3:8.9% 3-2:13.4% 2-3:8.7%
- Key matchup
- Support: Vulcan (C9, KDA 7.3, Spring MVP) vs SiuLoong (MVK, KDA 3.20). C9's macro and dragon control should beat MVK's 'volatile map movement'.
- Draft angle
- C9 can ban out Blaber's Nocturne problems by first-picking it; MVK draft data UNKNOWN.
- Form and context
- Loser goes home. C9 have played FURIA six times this year; MVK have not played since 29/08.
- What flips it
- If MVK's scrappy Bo5 profile (3-2 wins over CFO, DCG, GAM) meets a tilted C9 after an R1 loss, the series goes long.
- Note
- Pairing depends on R1 results; time slot order on 16/10 not confirmed.
| C9 | 2026 season | MVK |
|---|---|---|
| 62W-45L | Record | 37W-44L |
| 57.9% | Win rate | 45.7% |
| 65.4% | Blue side | 50.0% |
| 50.9% | Red side | 44.3% |
| +349 | GD@15 | -148 |
| 57.0% | First blood | 51.9% |
| 56.3% | Dragon share | 52.3% |
| 58.3% | Baron share | 47.7% |
| 32.9 min | Avg game | 33.2 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): insider-gaming.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, accountshark.net
18/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (17/10/2026 11:00 PDT)FURIAvC9Play-In lower final (predicted pairing)C9 53% COIN FLIPScore call 3-0 (21%). 3-0 21%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%, upset 47%.
- Score call
- C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (21%). C9 win by any score 53% (3-0 21%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 47%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:17.4% 0-3:20.7% 3-1:16.7% 1-3:18.4% 3-2:13.1% 2-3:13.7%
- Key matchup
- C9's Blaber vs FURIA's Tatu again: FURIA won all 2026 meetings (Americas Cup 2-0 and 3-0).
- Draft angle
- FURIA have seen C9's drafts in three formats this year; C9's Nocturne/Naafiri jungle plan was solved at the Americas Cup.
- Form and context
- FURIA lead the 2026 head-to-head 2-0 in series (5-0 in games, Americas Cup in March). The model now narrowly favours C9: C9's full LCS season (7-0 Spring regular season, 3rd in every playoff) rates above FURIA's CBLOL season once regular-season games count, and the CBLOL rates below the LCS as a region (0-12 in games vs LCK/LPL/LEC teams this year).
- What flips it
- The head-to-head. FURIA have solved C9 twice this year with early aggression (60% first blood, 70% herald control); if that pattern holds a third time the model's regular-season edge for C9 means nothing.
| FURIA | 2026 season | C9 |
|---|---|---|
| 64W-38L | Record | 62W-45L |
| 62.7% | Win rate | 57.9% |
| 55.0% | Blue side | 65.4% |
| 67.7% | Red side | 50.9% |
| +150 | GD@15 | +349 |
| 53.9% | First blood | 57.0% |
| 56.6% | Dragon share | 56.3% |
| 65.3% | Baron share | 58.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 32.9 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): insider-gaming.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, accountshark.net
19/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (18/10/2026 11:00 PDT)KCvC9Play-In final (predicted pairing)KC 62% LEANScore call 3-0 (27%). 3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 38%.
- Score call
- KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:26.5% 0-3:12.9% 3-1:20.9% 1-3:13.8% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.8%
- Key matchup
- Top lane: Canna (KC; domestic playoffs GD@15 +253, 16 solo kills, Rumble 8-2) vs Thanatos (C9; GD@15 -191, XPD@15 -223, Worlds debut). KC's early game runs through Canna and Yike (Vi 8-3); C9's jungler Blaber is the weakest early-game stat line of the four Play-In junglers on record (XPD@15 -496, CSD@15 -6.4).
- Draft angle
- KC's comforts Rumble, Vi and Seraphine/Rakan (Busio 12-3 combined) are the bans to watch; opponents banned Rumble 22% domestically. C9 lean on Blaber Nocturne (2-0) but Nocturne is a top-2 ban everywhere. Fearless Bo5 tests C9's thinner sampled pools (>=8 champions per player in an 11-game sample) more than KC's 13-19.
- Form and context
- KC: 9-0 Summer regular season, then 1-3 G2 and 0-3 MSI in playoffs (1-6 in games), but EWC runner-up in July and 5-4 in 2026 international series. C9: 8-7 in Summer playoffs, ended with back-to-back 1-3 losses (TLAW, LYON). No 2026 head-to-head. If they meet again in the final it is a rematch of round 1 with KC coming from the winners' side.
- What flips it
- KC's baron control collapses internationally (26%). If C9 survive lane and drag games past 30 minutes, Vulcan's playmaking (KDA 7.3, 81.7% KP) and C9's 56% dragon / 60% herald control can win the long game, plus a home crowd in LA.
- Note
- Bracket reset not mentioned in any source (UNKNOWN); assumed none.
| KC | 2026 season | C9 |
|---|---|---|
| 87W-51L | Record | 62W-45L |
| 63.0% | Win rate | 57.9% |
| 69.4% | Blue side | 65.4% |
| 57.9% | Red side | 50.9% |
| +367 | GD@15 | +349 |
| 51.4% | First blood | 57.0% |
| 58.0% | Dragon share | 56.3% |
| 55.6% | Baron share | 58.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 32.9 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg
Bracket
Riot Games Arena, Los AngelesEach card shows the favourite, its win chance, and the odds of every winning score; the bold score is the single most likely one and is what gets graded.
Play-In R1 · 16/10/2026 07:00KCvC9KC 62%LEAN3-0 27%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 38%Result: KC 3-2pick right
KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In R1 · 16/10/2026 12:00 (started)FURIAvMVKFURIA 73%LEAN3-0 36%3-1 23%3-2 14%upset 27%
FURIA 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). FURIA win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); MVK win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In winners' match · 17/10/2026 07:00KCvFURIAKC 64%LEAN3-0 28%3-1 22%3-2 14%upset 36%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (28%). KC win by any score 64% (3-0 28%, 3-1 22%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 36%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In elimination match · 17/10/2026 12:00C9vMVKC9 75%LOCK3-0 38%3-1 24%3-2 13%upset 25%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (38%). C9 win by any score 75% (3-0 38%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); MVK win 25%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In lower final · 18/10/2026 07:00FURIAvC9C9 53%COIN FLIP3-0 21%3-1 18%3-2 14%upset 47%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (21%). C9 win by any score 53% (3-0 21%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 47%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listPlay-In final · 19/10/2026 07:00KCvC9KC 62%LEAN3-0 27%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 38%Predicted pairing; depends on earlier results.
KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSeries
Tap a series for the reasoning16/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (15/10/2026 11:00 PDT)KCvC9Play-In R1KC 62% LEANScore call 3-0 (27%). 3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 38%.Result: KC 3-2, pick right
- Score call
- KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:26.5% 0-3:12.9% 3-1:20.9% 1-3:13.8% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.8%
- Key matchup
- Top lane: Canna (KC; domestic playoffs GD@15 +253, 16 solo kills, Rumble 8-2) vs Thanatos (C9; GD@15 -191, XPD@15 -223, Worlds debut). KC's early game runs through Canna and Yike (Vi 8-3); C9's jungler Blaber is the weakest early-game stat line of the four Play-In junglers on record (XPD@15 -496, CSD@15 -6.4).
- Draft angle
- KC's comforts Rumble, Vi and Seraphine/Rakan (Busio 12-3 combined) are the bans to watch; opponents banned Rumble 22% domestically. C9 lean on Blaber Nocturne (2-0) but Nocturne is a top-2 ban everywhere. Fearless Bo5 tests C9's thinner sampled pools (>=8 champions per player in an 11-game sample) more than KC's 13-19.
- Form and context
- KC: 9-0 Summer regular season, then 1-3 G2 and 0-3 MSI in playoffs (1-6 in games), but EWC runner-up in July and 5-4 in 2026 international series. C9: 8-7 in Summer playoffs, ended with back-to-back 1-3 losses (TLAW, LYON). No 2026 head-to-head. If they meet again in the final it is a rematch of round 1 with KC coming from the winners' side.
- What flips it
- KC's baron control collapses internationally (26%). If C9 survive lane and drag games past 30 minutes, Vulcan's playmaking (KDA 7.3, 81.7% KP) and C9's 56% dragon / 60% herald control can win the long game, plus a home crowd in LA.
- Note
- Day 1 order disputed between outlets (KC-C9 or FURIA-MVK first); both start after the 11:00 PDT Pick'Ems lock.
| KC | 2026 season | C9 |
|---|---|---|
| 87W-51L | Record | 62W-45L |
| 63.0% | Win rate | 57.9% |
| 69.4% | Blue side | 65.4% |
| 57.9% | Red side | 50.9% |
| +367 | GD@15 | +349 |
| 51.4% | First blood | 57.0% |
| 58.0% | Dragon share | 56.3% |
| 55.6% | Baron share | 58.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 32.9 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg
16/10/2026 12:00 NZDT (15/10/2026 16:00 PDT) (started)FURIAvMVKPlay-In R1FURIA 73% LEANScore call 3-0 (36%). 3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%, upset 27%.
- Score call
- FURIA 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). FURIA win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); MVK win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:36.0% 0-3:7.9% 3-1:23.4% 1-3:9.7% 3-2:13.7% 2-3:9.3%
- Key matchup
- Jungle tempo: Tatu (FURIA; Split 1 Finals MVP, GD@15 +191, KDA 5.0) vs Gury (MVK; KDA 2.95 across 78 games). MVK's weakest link is top (Kratos KDA 1.88), which is where FURIA's Guigo (10 solo kills in Split 2 playoffs) plays.
- Draft angle
- No MVK champion data was found (UNKNOWN), so this is the series with the least draft information. FURIA's pools: Guigo wide (Ambessa/Olaf/Gwen), Tatu Xin Zhao/Trundle/Sejuani, Ayu Ezreal/Kalista/Yunara.
- Form and context
- FURIA: CBLOL runner-up after a 3-series lower-bracket run, 12-8 in games, but 0-4 in series at MSI/EWC. MVK: no official match since 29/08 (47 days), lost 0-3 and 1-3 to CFO in Split 3 playoffs. No head-to-head.
- What flips it
- MVK win if FURIA's lane-phase problems (MSI CSD@15 -41) show up and MVK's first-baron conversion (82% WR when first baron) gets games to the mid game even.
- Note
- Day 1 order disputed between outlets (KC-C9 or FURIA-MVK first); both start after the 11:00 PDT Pick'Ems lock.
| FURIA | 2026 season | MVK |
|---|---|---|
| 64W-38L | Record | 37W-44L |
| 62.7% | Win rate | 45.7% |
| 55.0% | Blue side | 50.0% |
| 67.7% | Red side | 44.3% |
| +150 | GD@15 | -148 |
| 53.9% | First blood | 51.9% |
| 56.6% | Dragon share | 52.3% |
| 65.3% | Baron share | 47.7% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 33.2 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): insider-gaming.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, accountshark.net
17/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (16/10/2026 11:00 PDT)KCvFURIAPlay-In winners' match (predicted pairing)KC 64% LEANScore call 3-0 (28%). 3-0 28%, 3-1 22%, 3-2 14%, upset 36%.
- Score call
- KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (28%). KC win by any score 64% (3-0 28%, 3-1 22%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 36%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:28.4% 0-3:11.7% 3-1:21.5% 1-3:12.9% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.3%
- Key matchup
- Same as the winners' match: KC's top-jungle early game (Canna +253, Yike Vi) vs FURIA's early skirmishing. Whoever wins the 15-minute gold race likely wins the game; KC's WR when ahead @15 is ~77% domestically.
- Draft angle
- Fifth meeting of Fearless pools for each team by now; KC's deeper sampled pools (13-19 champions per player) matter more in a rematch Bo5.
- Form and context
- Model (v4) has KC as the Play-In favourite at 49% (C9 24%, FURIA 24%, MVK 3%). No 2026 head-to-head. LEC vs CBLOL in 2026: 1-0 (G2 1-0 FURIA at EWC). FURIA 0-12 in games vs LCK/LPL/LEC teams this year; KC 11-12 in international games.
- What flips it
- A reverse sweep run from FURIA through the lower bracket would mean their domestic peak form has carried over; that is the main way the 35% hits.
- Note
- Pairing depends on R1 results; time slot order on 16/10 not confirmed.
| KC | 2026 season | FURIA |
|---|---|---|
| 87W-51L | Record | 64W-38L |
| 63.0% | Win rate | 62.7% |
| 69.4% | Blue side | 55.0% |
| 57.9% | Red side | 67.7% |
| +367 | GD@15 | +150 |
| 51.4% | First blood | 53.9% |
| 58.0% | Dragon share | 56.6% |
| 55.6% | Baron share | 65.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 33.1 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg
17/10/2026 12:00 NZDT (16/10/2026 16:00 PDT)C9vMVKPlay-In elimination match (predicted pairing)C9 75% LOCKScore call 3-0 (38%). 3-0 38%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%, upset 25%.
- Score call
- C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (38%). C9 win by any score 75% (3-0 38%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); MVK win 25%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:38.3% 0-3:7.0% 3-1:23.7% 1-3:8.9% 3-2:13.4% 2-3:8.7%
- Key matchup
- Support: Vulcan (C9, KDA 7.3, Spring MVP) vs SiuLoong (MVK, KDA 3.20). C9's macro and dragon control should beat MVK's 'volatile map movement'.
- Draft angle
- C9 can ban out Blaber's Nocturne problems by first-picking it; MVK draft data UNKNOWN.
- Form and context
- Loser goes home. C9 have played FURIA six times this year; MVK have not played since 29/08.
- What flips it
- If MVK's scrappy Bo5 profile (3-2 wins over CFO, DCG, GAM) meets a tilted C9 after an R1 loss, the series goes long.
- Note
- Pairing depends on R1 results; time slot order on 16/10 not confirmed.
| C9 | 2026 season | MVK |
|---|---|---|
| 62W-45L | Record | 37W-44L |
| 57.9% | Win rate | 45.7% |
| 65.4% | Blue side | 50.0% |
| 50.9% | Red side | 44.3% |
| +349 | GD@15 | -148 |
| 57.0% | First blood | 51.9% |
| 56.3% | Dragon share | 52.3% |
| 58.3% | Baron share | 47.7% |
| 32.9 min | Avg game | 33.2 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): insider-gaming.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, accountshark.net
18/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (17/10/2026 11:00 PDT)FURIAvC9Play-In lower final (predicted pairing)C9 53% COIN FLIPScore call 3-0 (21%). 3-0 21%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%, upset 47%.
- Score call
- C9 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (21%). C9 win by any score 53% (3-0 21%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); FURIA win 47%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:17.4% 0-3:20.7% 3-1:16.7% 1-3:18.4% 3-2:13.1% 2-3:13.7%
- Key matchup
- C9's Blaber vs FURIA's Tatu again: FURIA won all 2026 meetings (Americas Cup 2-0 and 3-0).
- Draft angle
- FURIA have seen C9's drafts in three formats this year; C9's Nocturne/Naafiri jungle plan was solved at the Americas Cup.
- Form and context
- FURIA lead the 2026 head-to-head 2-0 in series (5-0 in games, Americas Cup in March). The model now narrowly favours C9: C9's full LCS season (7-0 Spring regular season, 3rd in every playoff) rates above FURIA's CBLOL season once regular-season games count, and the CBLOL rates below the LCS as a region (0-12 in games vs LCK/LPL/LEC teams this year).
- What flips it
- The head-to-head. FURIA have solved C9 twice this year with early aggression (60% first blood, 70% herald control); if that pattern holds a third time the model's regular-season edge for C9 means nothing.
| FURIA | 2026 season | C9 |
|---|---|---|
| 64W-38L | Record | 62W-45L |
| 62.7% | Win rate | 57.9% |
| 55.0% | Blue side | 65.4% |
| 67.7% | Red side | 50.9% |
| +150 | GD@15 | +349 |
| 53.9% | First blood | 57.0% |
| 56.6% | Dragon share | 56.3% |
| 65.3% | Baron share | 58.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 32.9 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): insider-gaming.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, accountshark.net
19/10/2026 07:00 NZDT (18/10/2026 11:00 PDT)KCvC9Play-In final (predicted pairing)KC 62% LEANScore call 3-0 (27%). 3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 38%.
- Score call
- KC 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (27%). KC win by any score 62% (3-0 27%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); C9 win 38%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:26.5% 0-3:12.9% 3-1:20.9% 1-3:13.8% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.8%
- Key matchup
- Top lane: Canna (KC; domestic playoffs GD@15 +253, 16 solo kills, Rumble 8-2) vs Thanatos (C9; GD@15 -191, XPD@15 -223, Worlds debut). KC's early game runs through Canna and Yike (Vi 8-3); C9's jungler Blaber is the weakest early-game stat line of the four Play-In junglers on record (XPD@15 -496, CSD@15 -6.4).
- Draft angle
- KC's comforts Rumble, Vi and Seraphine/Rakan (Busio 12-3 combined) are the bans to watch; opponents banned Rumble 22% domestically. C9 lean on Blaber Nocturne (2-0) but Nocturne is a top-2 ban everywhere. Fearless Bo5 tests C9's thinner sampled pools (>=8 champions per player in an 11-game sample) more than KC's 13-19.
- Form and context
- KC: 9-0 Summer regular season, then 1-3 G2 and 0-3 MSI in playoffs (1-6 in games), but EWC runner-up in July and 5-4 in 2026 international series. C9: 8-7 in Summer playoffs, ended with back-to-back 1-3 losses (TLAW, LYON). No 2026 head-to-head. If they meet again in the final it is a rematch of round 1 with KC coming from the winners' side.
- What flips it
- KC's baron control collapses internationally (26%). If C9 survive lane and drag games past 30 minutes, Vulcan's playmaking (KDA 7.3, 81.7% KP) and C9's 56% dragon / 60% herald control can win the long game, plus a home crowd in LA.
- Note
- Bracket reset not mentioned in any source (UNKNOWN); assumed none.
| KC | 2026 season | C9 |
|---|---|---|
| 87W-51L | Record | 62W-45L |
| 63.0% | Win rate | 57.9% |
| 69.4% | Blue side | 65.4% |
| 57.9% | Red side | 50.9% |
| +367 | GD@15 | +349 |
| 51.4% | First blood | 57.0% |
| 58.0% | Dragon share | 56.3% |
| 55.6% | Baron share | 58.3% |
| 33.1 min | Avg game | 32.9 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg, gol.gg
Pick'Ems
FINAL - lock 16/10/2026 07:00 NZDT| Slot | Pick | Chance | Points | Actual | Earned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1: KC vs C9 | KC | 62% | 5 | KC | 5 |
| R1: FURIA vs MVK | FURIA | 73% | 5 | Not played | |
| Winners' match | KC | 43% | 5 | Not played | |
| Elimination match | C9 | 43% | 5 | Not played | |
| Lower final | KC | 33% | 5 | Not played | |
| Final (Play-In winner) | KC | 49% | 10 | Not played |
Expected vs actual
1 of 6 Bo5s decidedAcross these 6 series the model expects about 1.8 sweeps, 1.3 3-1s, 0.8 3-2s and 2.1 upsets. A sweep is the single most likely score in most matchups, but most series are still expected not to be sweeps. Check against 2026: of 178 Bo5s predicted walk-forward, 44% ended 3-0, 31% 3-1 and 25% 3-2, and 3-0 was the most common result at every favourite strength (model/sweep_check.py).
Expected vs actual
1 of 6 Bo5s decidedAcross these 6 series the model expects about 1.8 sweeps, 1.3 3-1s, 0.8 3-2s and 2.1 upsets. A sweep is the single most likely score in most matchups, but most series are still expected not to be sweeps. Check against 2026: of 178 Bo5s predicted walk-forward, 44% ended 3-0, 31% 3-1 and 25% 3-2, and 3-0 was the most common result at every favourite strength (model/sweep_check.py).