Scorecard

1 series graded so far. Only predictions made before each series started count.

Accuracy by prediction set

Brier and log loss on the stated win chance of the actual winner
SetGradedWinnersAccuracyExact scoreBrierLog loss
baseline11100%0%0.1480.485
playin11100%0%0.1480.485

Calibration by tier

Average stated chance of the pick against how often it won
SetTierGradedStatedWon
baselineLEAN162%100%
playinLEAN162%100%

Pick'Ems

Scored against the result in the same slot
Play-In5 / 355 points decided so far
Swiss0 / UNKNOWN0 points decided so far
StageSlotPickActualEarnedPoints
Play-InR1: KC vs C9KCKC55
Play-InR1: FURIA vs MVKFURIApendingpending5
Play-InWinners' matchKCpendingpending5
Play-InElimination matchC9pendingpending5
Play-InLower finalKCpendingpending5
Play-InFinal (Play-In winner)KCpendingpending10
Swiss3-0GENpendingpendingUNKNOWN
Swiss3-0HLEpendingpendingUNKNOWN
Swiss0-3CFOpendingpendingUNKNOWN
Swiss0-3LOSpendingpendingUNKNOWN
SwissAdvance (3-1 or 3-2)BLGpendingpendingUNKNOWN
SwissAdvance (3-1 or 3-2)T1pendingpendingUNKNOWN
SwissAdvance (3-1 or 3-2)DKpendingpendingUNKNOWN
SwissAdvance (3-1 or 3-2)ALpendingpendingUNKNOWN
SwissAdvance (3-1 or 3-2)G2pendingpendingUNKNOWN
SwissAdvance (3-1 or 3-2)IGpendingpendingUNKNOWN

Results

Each finished series beside the frozen baseline pick and the latest staged pick
SeriesResultBaseline pickLatest staged pick
PI-R1-AKC 3-2 C9KC 3-0 (62%)hitKC 3-0 (62%)hit

Crystal Ball

Our answers, entered before the 16/10/2026 07:00 NZDT lock
#QuestionAnswerConfidenceWhy
1Which champion will have the highest presence?OriannaLOWOrianna leads presence across 2026 for Worlds teams (71.8%, wards.lol) and led MSI 2026 (64.8%, gol.gg). Cassiopeia's 85.6% came only from domestic playoffs before her 26.20 nerf, and she was 52.1% at MSI. Close call; Cassiopeia is the alternative.
2Which champion will have the highest win rate (min 5 games)?CamilleLOW60.0% WR (27-18) domestically as a top/support flex, so it reaches 5 games; Qiyana (59.6%) is the alternative Hotspawn tips. High-variance question.
3Which champion will have the highest average deaths (min 5 games)?NautilusLOWEngage supports die most; Nautilus is the most-picked pure engage support (35.9% presence) and leads LEC supports. Alternative: Alistar.
4Which pro will have the highest average KDA?KnightLOWHighest 2026 KDA among Worlds players (6.97, wards.lol) over a full-year sample; Chovy's 7.3 came from 11 playoff games. BLG's expected deep run also helps.
5Which pro will have the highest average damage per game?PeyzMEDIUMLeads 2026 damage per game for Worlds players (28,605, wards.lol) with a 30.3% damage share in LCK playoffs (gol.gg), on a team the model sends deep (P semis 55%).
6Which pro will have the highest average kill participation?KeriaLOW83.3% KP in LCK playoffs, highest of the LCK playoff samples. Alternatives: Vulcan (81.7%), Career (80.6%).
7Peyz vs Gumayusi: more total kills?PeyzMEDIUMTotal kills depend on games played: model gives T1 a slightly deeper run (P semis 55% each in v4; Peyz still takes more of his team's gold), and Peyz takes more of his team's gold/damage (26.2% gold, 30.3% DMG vs 24.6%/27.5%).
8Will Faker reach 700 career Worlds kills this year?NoHIGHNeeds 84 kills from 616. At his 2026 rate of 3.61 kills per game that is about 24 games (wards.lol), close to the maximum a team can play at Worlds (roughly 26 for a champion going the distance in long series).
9Will Teemo be picked at least once?NoHIGHNo Teemo in the 298-game domestic playoff sample or the 71-game MSI sample.
10How many unique champions will be picked?110-114LOWBands are 0-99, 100-104, 105-109, 110-114, 115-119, 120+ (wards.lol). Worlds will have about 100 games (6 Play-In Bo5s, 33 Swiss matches, 7 knockout Bo5s); Fearless Draft in every Bo3/Bo5 forces breadth, and Worlds teams used 142 champions across 2026.
11Will more games end before or after 32:00?BeforeMEDIUM52.1% of 2026 games by Worlds teams ended before 32:00 even though the average is 32:21 (wards.lol): game length is right-skewed, so the median sits below the mean.
12Will any pro get 15+ kills in one game?YesLOWA 15+ kill game happened in 23 of 1,590 games by Worlds teams in 2026 (1.45%, wards.lol). Over about 100 Worlds games that is 77% at the full rate and about 50% at half the rate (Worlds games are closer, and nobody passed 14 at Worlds 2025, per Hotspawn). Lean Yes.
13Will any pro reach 450+ CS in one game?YesHIGH450+ CS happened in 69 of 1,590 games by Worlds teams in 2026 (4.3%, wards.lol); over about 100 Worlds games at least one is near-certain.
14What role will the Finals MVP play?Bot (ADC)LOWFollows the Finals MVP pick (Ruler).
15How many different regions will be in Knockouts?4LOWModel: 4 regions 54%, 3 regions 25%, 5 regions 18%. History pulls the other way: knockouts averaged 3.3 regions from 2019 to 2025 (wards.lol), so 3 is a strong alternative.
16Will a team from the LCS reach Knockouts?YesLOWModel: 69% that TLAW, LYON or C9 reaches the quarterfinals. History is weaker: the LCS reached knockouts in 3 of the last 7 Worlds (wards.lol). Blended, slightly above 50%.
17Which team places higher: HLE or T1?HLELOWModel v4: dead even (T1 higher 45%, HLE higher 45%, same placement 10%) after halving T1's pedigree adjustment, and the predicted bracket has HLE reaching the final and T1 losing a semifinal. HLE lead the head-to-head 5-3 in series (wards.lol) and 2-1 in 2026. Switched from T1 to HLE; still a coin flip.
18Which team will win the shortest game?HLEMEDIUMMost aggressive early-game top team (76.5% first blood, gol.gg), fastest win among Worlds teams in 2026 (19:20, wards.lol) and fastest game at MSI 2026 (22:16, Hotspawn).