Knockouts
- Dates
- 04/11 to 15/11/2026 NZDT (final 14/11 in Brooklyn)
- Venue
- CUTX Event Center, Allen (quarterfinals, semifinals); Barclays Center, Brooklyn (final)
- Format
- Eight teams, single elimination, every series Bo5, no third-place match.
- Draft
- Fearless Draft in every series.
- Pick'Ems lock
- 04/11/2026 11:00 NZDT (03/11 14:00 PST)
Frozen baseline, predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT and never edited since.
Latest staged run (playin), predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Stages not yet re-run show the frozen baseline.
Next up
The next open Knockouts seriesBracket
CUTX Event Center, Allen (quarterfinals, semifinals); Barclays Center, Brooklyn (final)The quarterfinal draw on 31/10 is random; the baseline assumes no same-region quarterfinals with favourites spread out.
Quarterfinal · 04/11/2026 09:00
GENv
ALGEN 78%LOCK3-0 41%3-1 24%3-2 13%upset 22%
GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (41%). GEN win by any score 78% (3-0 41%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); AL win 22%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listQuarterfinal · 05/11/2026 09:00
T1v
IGT1 74%LEAN3-0 37%3-1 23%3-2 14%upset 26%
T1 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (37%). T1 win by any score 74% (3-0 37%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); IG win 26%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listQuarterfinal · 06/11/2026 09:00
HLEv
G2HLE 73%LEAN3-0 36%3-1 23%3-2 14%upset 27%
HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). HLE win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); G2 win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listQuarterfinal · 07/11/2026 09:00
BLGv
DKBLG 52%COIN FLIP3-0 20%3-1 18%3-2 14%upset 48%
BLG 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (20%). BLG win by any score 52% (3-0 20%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); DK win 48%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSemifinal · 08/11/2026 09:00GENvT1GEN 61%LEAN3-0 26%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 39%
GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); T1 win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSemifinal · 09/11/2026 09:00HLEvBLGHLE 55%COIN FLIP3-0 22%3-1 19%3-2 14%upset 45%
HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (22%). HLE win by any score 55% (3-0 22%, 3-1 19%, 3-2 14%); BLG win 45%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listFinal · 15/11/2026 05:00GENvHLEGEN 61%LEAN3-0 26%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 39%
GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); HLE win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSeries
Tap a series for the reasoning04/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (03/11/2026 14:00 CST)GENvALQuarterfinal (assumed draw)GEN 78% LOCKScore call 3-0 (41%). 3-0 41%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%, upset 22%.
- Score call
- GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (41%). GEN win by any score 78% (3-0 41%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); AL win 22%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:40.7% 0-3:6.2% 3-1:24.0% 1-3:8.0% 3-2:13.1% 2-3:8.1%
- Key matchup
- Jungle: Canyon (GEN; KDA 5.6, 72.3% KP in LCK playoffs) vs Tarzan (AL; KDA 5.6, 77% KP in LPL Split 3). AL's whole game is the Tarzan-Kael engage; GEN's is early map control (61.7% dragon, 74.2% Nashor). Whoever owns the first two dragons dictates the series.
- Draft angle
- Opponents ban Olaf (73%), Cassiopeia (64%) and Ezreal (55%) against GEN; Shanks (AL) plays Cassiopeia himself, nerfed again in 26.20. Kiin's Varus/Gwen vs Breathe's Gnar/Ambessa/K'Sante, two of which were nerfed in 26.20.
- Form and context
- No 2026 head-to-head. GEN: LCK champions, 85.7% win rate when ahead at 15. AL: LPL Split 3 champions (3-1 over BLG) after six straight series losses to BLG; only international series of 2026 was a 0-2 loss to KC at EWC. LCK vs LPL in 2026: 5-5 in series.
- What flips it
- AL's early snowball landing (Grand Final wins in 30-31 minutes with 18-8, 20-1, 22-5 kill leads). GEN's only playoff losses came in lost Baron fights; a chaotic early game is AL's route.
| GEN | 2026 season | AL |
|---|---|---|
| 94W-44L | Record | 83W-59L |
| 68.1% | Win rate | 58.5% |
| 76.5% | Blue side | 60.3% |
| 56.1% | Red side | 56.2% |
| +444 | GD@15 | +390 |
| 47.1% | First blood | 59.2% |
| 60.3% | Dragon share | 54.3% |
| 65.9% | Baron share | 57.7% |
| 31.7 min | Avg game | 32.7 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, dotesports.com, gol.gg
05/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (04/11/2026 14:00 CST)T1vIGQuarterfinal (assumed draw)T1 74% LEANScore call 3-0 (37%). 3-0 37%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%, upset 26%.
- Score call
- T1 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (37%). T1 win by any score 74% (3-0 37%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); IG win 26%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:36.7% 0-3:7.6% 3-1:23.5% 1-3:9.5% 3-2:13.6% 2-3:9.1%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Faker (KDA 3.0, GD@15 -372 in LCK playoffs) vs Rookie (858 DPM, 8.5 CSM in LPL Split 3). Jungle: Oner (GD@15 -325, Naafiri 1-3) vs Wei (Qiyana/Jarvan IV/Wukong tempo). T1 start slowly; IG punish slow starts with Baron-pit engages.
- Draft angle
- Opponents ban Bard (78%) and Nocturne (61%) against T1. Patch 26.20 buffs Lucian (Peyz) and Tahm Kench/Neeko (Keria). IG's JiaQi lives on Jhin/Yunara/Ezreal; Yunara was nerfed.
- Form and context
- T1 beat IG 3-1 in the Worlds 2025 Play-In. T1: 22-11 in 2026 international games but 9-9 in LCK playoffs. IG: 4th LPL seed, strong Split 3 after weak Splits 1-2 (35%, 40% regular-season win rates, now in the model), no international games in 2026.
- What flips it
- IG's hyper-aggressive Baron engages work against patient macro teams about as often as they backfire; T1's late-game teamfighting (Peyz pentakill vs DK) is the better closing tool, so IG need the series decided before 30 minutes.
| T1 | 2026 season | IG |
|---|---|---|
| 114W-69L | Record | 57W-67L |
| 62.3% | Win rate | 46.0% |
| 63.8% | Blue side | 50.0% |
| 60.7% | Red side | 41.4% |
| +555 | GD@15 | +50 |
| 51.9% | First blood | 50.8% |
| 54.3% | Dragon share | 53.1% |
| 57.4% | Baron share | 49.9% |
| 32.2 min | Avg game | 32.3 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, gol.gg, gol.gg
06/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (05/11/2026 14:00 CST)HLEvG2Quarterfinal (assumed draw)HLE 73% LEANScore call 3-0 (36%). 3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%, upset 27%.
- Score call
- HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). HLE win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); G2 win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:36.3% 0-3:7.8% 3-1:23.4% 1-3:9.6% 3-2:13.7% 2-3:9.2%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Zeka (25.1% DMG, 5 solo kills) vs Caps (domestic GD@15 +501 but international +21). Top: BrokenBlade's international GD@15 -284 vs Zeus.
- Draft angle
- G2 are tipped as the best Fearless team for unconventional picks; opponents ban Bard 32% and Poppy 29% vs G2 internationally. HLE ban Cassiopeia 59%, Olaf 47%, Bard 47%.
- Form and context
- HLE beat G2 3-0 at MSI (05/07) on the way to the title. G2 6-6 in 2026 international series; G2 red side 4-14 internationally.
- What flips it
- HLE convert only 62.5% of games when ahead @15. G2's draft surprises plus side selection (G2 13-4 on blue internationally) can steal games.
| HLE | 2026 season | G2 |
|---|---|---|
| 104W-64L | Record | 87W-44L |
| 61.9% | Win rate | 66.4% |
| 65.8% | Blue side | 74.4% |
| 58.4% | Red side | 48.8% |
| +668 | GD@15 | +605 |
| 56.5% | First blood | 45.0% |
| 53.6% | Dragon share | 55.4% |
| 60.7% | Baron share | 67.9% |
| 31.1 min | Avg game | 33.1 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, gol.gg
07/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (06/11/2026 14:00 CST)BLGvDKQuarterfinal (assumed draw)BLG 52% COIN FLIPScore call 3-0 (20%). 3-0 20%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%, upset 48%.
- Score call
- BLG 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (20%). BLG win by any score 52% (3-0 20%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); DK win 48%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:20.2% 0-3:17.8% 3-1:18.2% 1-3:16.9% 3-2:13.7% 2-3:13.2%
- Key matchup
- Bot lane: Viper (BLG, 741 DPM at MSI but GD@15 -514) vs Smash (DK, +443 GD@15, 28.5% DMG). Top: Bin's lane dominance (+341 GD@15 at MSI) vs Siwoo (KP 38.2%, Jayce 0-3).
- Draft angle
- DK ban Nocturne 100% and Kalista 44%; opponents ban Vi 56% and Orianna 44% vs DK. BLG's top-lane comforts (Renekton/Gnar/K'Sante) face K'Sante's 26.20 nerf.
- Form and context
- DK beat BLG 2-1 in the EWC QF (17/07) on the way to the title. BLG 8-2 in 2026 international series, best of any team.
- What flips it
- DK's poor conversion (46.2% WR when ahead @15). If BLG stay close at 15, BLG's late teamfighting ('most lethal teamfight roster') is the better closing tool.
| BLG | 2026 season | DK |
|---|---|---|
| 125W-52L | Record | 91W-78L |
| 70.6% | Win rate | 53.8% |
| 69.1% | Blue side | 61.1% |
| 72.5% | Red side | 45.6% |
| +1023 | GD@15 | +521 |
| 49.2% | First blood | 50.9% |
| 59.0% | Dragon share | 50.7% |
| 72.8% | Baron share | 48.1% |
| 32.7 min | Avg game | 32.4 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gosugamers.net, sheepesports.com, en.wikipedia.org, sheepesports.com
08/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (07/11/2026 14:00 CST)GENvT1SemifinalGEN 61% LEANScore call 3-0 (26%). 3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 39%.
- Score call
- GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); T1 win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:25.9% 0-3:13.3% 3-1:20.6% 1-3:14.0% 3-2:14.1% 2-3:11.9%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Chovy vs Faker. GEN's macro control (61.7% dragon, 74.2% Nashor) against T1's late-game teamfighting (Peyz pentakill G1 vs DK).
- Draft angle
- GEN's opponents target Olaf/Cassiopeia/Ezreal; T1's target Bard/Nocturne. Five games of Fearless deep into a 14-series tournament: whichever team has more untouched comfort picks left by games 4-5.
- Form and context
- 2026 head-to-head 1-1: T1 3-2 GEN in Road to MSI, GEN 2-1 T1 for 3rd at EWC (19/07). T1 won the last three world titles.
- What flips it
- T1's Worlds pedigree is the one thing the model only half-counts. A T1 title would be the fourth straight from a non-first seed.
| GEN | 2026 season | T1 |
|---|---|---|
| 94W-44L | Record | 114W-69L |
| 68.1% | Win rate | 62.3% |
| 76.5% | Blue side | 63.8% |
| 56.1% | Red side | 60.7% |
| +444 | GD@15 | +555 |
| 47.1% | First blood | 51.9% |
| 60.3% | Dragon share | 54.3% |
| 65.9% | Baron share | 57.4% |
| 31.7 min | Avg game | 32.2 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, dotesports.com, gol.gg
09/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (08/11/2026 14:00 CST)HLEvBLGSemifinalHLE 55% COIN FLIPScore call 3-0 (22%). 3-0 22%, 3-1 19%, 3-2 14%, upset 45%.
- Score call
- HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (22%). HLE win by any score 55% (3-0 22%, 3-1 19%, 3-2 14%); BLG win 45%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:22.2% 0-3:16.1% 3-1:19.1% 1-3:15.9% 3-2:13.9% 2-3:12.8%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Knight (BLG; KDA 7.2 at MSI, Ryze/Aurora/Viktor) vs Zeka (HLE; 25.1% damage share, 5 solo kills in the playoff sample). Jungle tempo: Xun vs Kanavi, whose Baron steal decided game 5 of the MSI final between these two teams.
- Draft angle
- HLE ban Cassiopeia 59%, Olaf 47%, Bard 47% (Bard is ON's comfort pick for BLG). Bin's Renekton/Gnar/K'Sante vs Zeus's Camille/Ambessa: K'Sante and Ambessa both nerfed in 26.20.
- Form and context
- MSI 2026 final rematch: HLE 3-2 BLG (12/07) after BLG led 2-1; BLG had beaten HLE 3-1 in the upper final three days earlier. BLG 8-2 in 2026 international series, HLE 6-1.
- What flips it
- BLG's top lane. If Bin plays like he did at MSI (+341 GD@15) BLG win lane and the series; if the summer churn (Bin/Wenbo/Flandre) shows, HLE's early game (76.5% first blood) runs away with it.
| HLE | 2026 season | BLG |
|---|---|---|
| 104W-64L | Record | 125W-52L |
| 61.9% | Win rate | 70.6% |
| 65.8% | Blue side | 69.1% |
| 58.4% | Red side | 72.5% |
| +668 | GD@15 | +1023 |
| 56.5% | First blood | 49.2% |
| 53.6% | Dragon share | 59.0% |
| 60.7% | Baron share | 72.8% |
| 31.1 min | Avg game | 32.7 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, gol.gg
15/11/2026 05:00 NZDT (14/11/2026 11:00 EST (Brooklyn))GENvHLEFinalGEN 61% LEANScore call 3-0 (26%). 3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 39%.
- Score call
- GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); HLE win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:26.0% 0-3:13.2% 3-1:20.7% 1-3:14.0% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.9%
- Key matchup
- Bot lane: Ruler (31.7% damage, 25.4% gold share) vs Gumayusi (27.5% damage), and the two best supports in the LCK by kill participation (Duro 79.7%, Delight 76%). Top: Kiin (+354 GD@15) vs Zeus (-170 GD@15 in the playoff sample) is GEN's clearest edge.
- Draft angle
- Fourth Bo5 between them this year; both drafts are fully scouted. HLE's Camille/Vi get banned against them 53% of the time; GEN's opponents target Olaf/Cassiopeia/Ezreal. Fearless depth favours GEN's wider pools (Ruler 10 champions in 11 games).
- Form and context
- 2026 head-to-head: GEN 3-1 HLE in the LCK upper final (05/09) and 3-1 in the Grand Final (13/09); HLE's two game wins both came from Baron fights. HLE are MSI champions; GEN missed MSI.
- What flips it
- Baron. Both of HLE's wins over GEN this year were late Baron fights, and HLE also won the MSI final on a Kanavi steal. A Brooklyn final decided around the pit is HLE's path.
| GEN | 2026 season | HLE |
|---|---|---|
| 94W-44L | Record | 104W-64L |
| 68.1% | Win rate | 61.9% |
| 76.5% | Blue side | 65.8% |
| 56.1% | Red side | 58.4% |
| +444 | GD@15 | +668 |
| 47.1% | First blood | 56.5% |
| 60.3% | Dragon share | 53.6% |
| 65.9% | Baron share | 60.7% |
| 31.7 min | Avg game | 31.1 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:07 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, dotesports.com, gol.gg
Bracket
CUTX Event Center, Allen (quarterfinals, semifinals); Barclays Center, Brooklyn (final)The quarterfinal draw on 31/10 is random; the baseline assumes no same-region quarterfinals with favourites spread out.
Quarterfinal · 04/11/2026 09:00GENvALGEN 78%LOCK3-0 41%3-1 24%3-2 13%upset 22%
GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (41%). GEN win by any score 78% (3-0 41%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); AL win 22%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listQuarterfinal · 05/11/2026 09:00T1vIGT1 74%LEAN3-0 37%3-1 23%3-2 14%upset 26%
T1 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (37%). T1 win by any score 74% (3-0 37%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); IG win 26%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listQuarterfinal · 06/11/2026 09:00HLEvG2HLE 73%LEAN3-0 36%3-1 23%3-2 14%upset 27%
HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). HLE win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); G2 win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listQuarterfinal · 07/11/2026 09:00BLGvDKBLG 52%COIN FLIP3-0 20%3-1 18%3-2 14%upset 48%
BLG 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (20%). BLG win by any score 52% (3-0 20%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); DK win 48%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSemifinal · 08/11/2026 09:00GENvT1GEN 61%LEAN3-0 26%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 39%
GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); T1 win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSemifinal · 09/11/2026 09:00HLEvBLGHLE 55%COIN FLIP3-0 22%3-1 19%3-2 14%upset 45%
HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (22%). HLE win by any score 55% (3-0 22%, 3-1 19%, 3-2 14%); BLG win 45%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listFinal · 15/11/2026 05:00GENvHLEGEN 61%LEAN3-0 26%3-1 21%3-2 14%upset 39%
GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); HLE win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
Full detail in the series listSeries
Tap a series for the reasoning04/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (03/11/2026 14:00 CST)GENvALQuarterfinal (assumed draw)GEN 78% LOCKScore call 3-0 (41%). 3-0 41%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%, upset 22%.
- Score call
- GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (41%). GEN win by any score 78% (3-0 41%, 3-1 24%, 3-2 13%); AL win 22%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:40.7% 0-3:6.2% 3-1:24.0% 1-3:8.0% 3-2:13.1% 2-3:8.1%
- Key matchup
- Jungle: Canyon (GEN; KDA 5.6, 72.3% KP in LCK playoffs) vs Tarzan (AL; KDA 5.6, 77% KP in LPL Split 3). AL's whole game is the Tarzan-Kael engage; GEN's is early map control (61.7% dragon, 74.2% Nashor). Whoever owns the first two dragons dictates the series.
- Draft angle
- Opponents ban Olaf (73%), Cassiopeia (64%) and Ezreal (55%) against GEN; Shanks (AL) plays Cassiopeia himself, nerfed again in 26.20. Kiin's Varus/Gwen vs Breathe's Gnar/Ambessa/K'Sante, two of which were nerfed in 26.20.
- Form and context
- No 2026 head-to-head. GEN: LCK champions, 85.7% win rate when ahead at 15. AL: LPL Split 3 champions (3-1 over BLG) after six straight series losses to BLG; only international series of 2026 was a 0-2 loss to KC at EWC. LCK vs LPL in 2026: 5-5 in series.
- What flips it
- AL's early snowball landing (Grand Final wins in 30-31 minutes with 18-8, 20-1, 22-5 kill leads). GEN's only playoff losses came in lost Baron fights; a chaotic early game is AL's route.
| GEN | 2026 season | AL |
|---|---|---|
| 94W-44L | Record | 83W-59L |
| 68.1% | Win rate | 58.5% |
| 76.5% | Blue side | 60.3% |
| 56.1% | Red side | 56.2% |
| +444 | GD@15 | +390 |
| 47.1% | First blood | 59.2% |
| 60.3% | Dragon share | 54.3% |
| 65.9% | Baron share | 57.7% |
| 31.7 min | Avg game | 32.7 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, dotesports.com, gol.gg
05/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (04/11/2026 14:00 CST)T1vIGQuarterfinal (assumed draw)T1 74% LEANScore call 3-0 (37%). 3-0 37%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%, upset 26%.
- Score call
- T1 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (37%). T1 win by any score 74% (3-0 37%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); IG win 26%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:36.7% 0-3:7.6% 3-1:23.5% 1-3:9.5% 3-2:13.6% 2-3:9.1%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Faker (KDA 3.0, GD@15 -372 in LCK playoffs) vs Rookie (858 DPM, 8.5 CSM in LPL Split 3). Jungle: Oner (GD@15 -325, Naafiri 1-3) vs Wei (Qiyana/Jarvan IV/Wukong tempo). T1 start slowly; IG punish slow starts with Baron-pit engages.
- Draft angle
- Opponents ban Bard (78%) and Nocturne (61%) against T1. Patch 26.20 buffs Lucian (Peyz) and Tahm Kench/Neeko (Keria). IG's JiaQi lives on Jhin/Yunara/Ezreal; Yunara was nerfed.
- Form and context
- T1 beat IG 3-1 in the Worlds 2025 Play-In. T1: 22-11 in 2026 international games but 9-9 in LCK playoffs. IG: 4th LPL seed, strong Split 3 after weak Splits 1-2 (35%, 40% regular-season win rates, now in the model), no international games in 2026.
- What flips it
- IG's hyper-aggressive Baron engages work against patient macro teams about as often as they backfire; T1's late-game teamfighting (Peyz pentakill vs DK) is the better closing tool, so IG need the series decided before 30 minutes.
| T1 | 2026 season | IG |
|---|---|---|
| 114W-69L | Record | 57W-67L |
| 62.3% | Win rate | 46.0% |
| 63.8% | Blue side | 50.0% |
| 60.7% | Red side | 41.4% |
| +555 | GD@15 | +50 |
| 51.9% | First blood | 50.8% |
| 54.3% | Dragon share | 53.1% |
| 57.4% | Baron share | 49.9% |
| 32.2 min | Avg game | 32.3 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, gol.gg, gol.gg
06/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (05/11/2026 14:00 CST)HLEvG2Quarterfinal (assumed draw)HLE 73% LEANScore call 3-0 (36%). 3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%, upset 27%.
- Score call
- HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (36%). HLE win by any score 73% (3-0 36%, 3-1 23%, 3-2 14%); G2 win 27%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:36.3% 0-3:7.8% 3-1:23.4% 1-3:9.6% 3-2:13.7% 2-3:9.2%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Zeka (25.1% DMG, 5 solo kills) vs Caps (domestic GD@15 +501 but international +21). Top: BrokenBlade's international GD@15 -284 vs Zeus.
- Draft angle
- G2 are tipped as the best Fearless team for unconventional picks; opponents ban Bard 32% and Poppy 29% vs G2 internationally. HLE ban Cassiopeia 59%, Olaf 47%, Bard 47%.
- Form and context
- HLE beat G2 3-0 at MSI (05/07) on the way to the title. G2 6-6 in 2026 international series; G2 red side 4-14 internationally.
- What flips it
- HLE convert only 62.5% of games when ahead @15. G2's draft surprises plus side selection (G2 13-4 on blue internationally) can steal games.
| HLE | 2026 season | G2 |
|---|---|---|
| 104W-64L | Record | 87W-44L |
| 61.9% | Win rate | 66.4% |
| 65.8% | Blue side | 74.4% |
| 58.4% | Red side | 48.8% |
| +668 | GD@15 | +605 |
| 56.5% | First blood | 45.0% |
| 53.6% | Dragon share | 55.4% |
| 60.7% | Baron share | 67.9% |
| 31.1 min | Avg game | 33.1 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, gol.gg
07/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (06/11/2026 14:00 CST)BLGvDKQuarterfinal (assumed draw)BLG 52% COIN FLIPScore call 3-0 (20%). 3-0 20%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%, upset 48%.
- Score call
- BLG 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (20%). BLG win by any score 52% (3-0 20%, 3-1 18%, 3-2 14%); DK win 48%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:20.2% 0-3:17.8% 3-1:18.2% 1-3:16.9% 3-2:13.7% 2-3:13.2%
- Key matchup
- Bot lane: Viper (BLG, 741 DPM at MSI but GD@15 -514) vs Smash (DK, +443 GD@15, 28.5% DMG). Top: Bin's lane dominance (+341 GD@15 at MSI) vs Siwoo (KP 38.2%, Jayce 0-3).
- Draft angle
- DK ban Nocturne 100% and Kalista 44%; opponents ban Vi 56% and Orianna 44% vs DK. BLG's top-lane comforts (Renekton/Gnar/K'Sante) face K'Sante's 26.20 nerf.
- Form and context
- DK beat BLG 2-1 in the EWC QF (17/07) on the way to the title. BLG 8-2 in 2026 international series, best of any team.
- What flips it
- DK's poor conversion (46.2% WR when ahead @15). If BLG stay close at 15, BLG's late teamfighting ('most lethal teamfight roster') is the better closing tool.
| BLG | 2026 season | DK |
|---|---|---|
| 125W-52L | Record | 91W-78L |
| 70.6% | Win rate | 53.8% |
| 69.1% | Blue side | 61.1% |
| 72.5% | Red side | 45.6% |
| +1023 | GD@15 | +521 |
| 49.2% | First blood | 50.9% |
| 59.0% | Dragon share | 50.7% |
| 72.8% | Baron share | 48.1% |
| 32.7 min | Avg game | 32.4 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): gosugamers.net, sheepesports.com, en.wikipedia.org, sheepesports.com
08/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (07/11/2026 14:00 CST)GENvT1SemifinalGEN 61% LEANScore call 3-0 (26%). 3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 39%.
- Score call
- GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); T1 win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:25.9% 0-3:13.3% 3-1:20.6% 1-3:14.0% 3-2:14.1% 2-3:11.9%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Chovy vs Faker. GEN's macro control (61.7% dragon, 74.2% Nashor) against T1's late-game teamfighting (Peyz pentakill G1 vs DK).
- Draft angle
- GEN's opponents target Olaf/Cassiopeia/Ezreal; T1's target Bard/Nocturne. Five games of Fearless deep into a 14-series tournament: whichever team has more untouched comfort picks left by games 4-5.
- Form and context
- 2026 head-to-head 1-1: T1 3-2 GEN in Road to MSI, GEN 2-1 T1 for 3rd at EWC (19/07). T1 won the last three world titles.
- What flips it
- T1's Worlds pedigree is the one thing the model only half-counts. A T1 title would be the fourth straight from a non-first seed.
| GEN | 2026 season | T1 |
|---|---|---|
| 94W-44L | Record | 114W-69L |
| 68.1% | Win rate | 62.3% |
| 76.5% | Blue side | 63.8% |
| 56.1% | Red side | 60.7% |
| +444 | GD@15 | +555 |
| 47.1% | First blood | 51.9% |
| 60.3% | Dragon share | 54.3% |
| 65.9% | Baron share | 57.4% |
| 31.7 min | Avg game | 32.2 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, dotesports.com, gol.gg
09/11/2026 09:00 NZDT (08/11/2026 14:00 CST)HLEvBLGSemifinalHLE 55% COIN FLIPScore call 3-0 (22%). 3-0 22%, 3-1 19%, 3-2 14%, upset 45%.
- Score call
- HLE 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (22%). HLE win by any score 55% (3-0 22%, 3-1 19%, 3-2 14%); BLG win 45%. The tier rates who wins, and that is close to even; the score is a separate call. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:22.2% 0-3:16.1% 3-1:19.1% 1-3:15.9% 3-2:13.9% 2-3:12.8%
- Key matchup
- Mid: Knight (BLG; KDA 7.2 at MSI, Ryze/Aurora/Viktor) vs Zeka (HLE; 25.1% damage share, 5 solo kills in the playoff sample). Jungle tempo: Xun vs Kanavi, whose Baron steal decided game 5 of the MSI final between these two teams.
- Draft angle
- HLE ban Cassiopeia 59%, Olaf 47%, Bard 47% (Bard is ON's comfort pick for BLG). Bin's Renekton/Gnar/K'Sante vs Zeus's Camille/Ambessa: K'Sante and Ambessa both nerfed in 26.20.
- Form and context
- MSI 2026 final rematch: HLE 3-2 BLG (12/07) after BLG led 2-1; BLG had beaten HLE 3-1 in the upper final three days earlier. BLG 8-2 in 2026 international series, HLE 6-1.
- What flips it
- BLG's top lane. If Bin plays like he did at MSI (+341 GD@15) BLG win lane and the series; if the summer churn (Bin/Wenbo/Flandre) shows, HLE's early game (76.5% first blood) runs away with it.
| HLE | 2026 season | BLG |
|---|---|---|
| 104W-64L | Record | 125W-52L |
| 61.9% | Win rate | 70.6% |
| 65.8% | Blue side | 69.1% |
| 58.4% | Red side | 72.5% |
| +668 | GD@15 | +1023 |
| 56.5% | First blood | 49.2% |
| 53.6% | Dragon share | 59.0% |
| 60.7% | Baron share | 72.8% |
| 31.1 min | Avg game | 32.7 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, gosugamers.net, gol.gg
15/11/2026 05:00 NZDT (14/11/2026 11:00 EST (Brooklyn))GENvHLEFinalGEN 61% LEANScore call 3-0 (26%). 3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%, upset 39%.
- Score call
- GEN 3-0 is the single most likely of the 6 possible scores (26%). GEN win by any score 61% (3-0 26%, 3-1 21%, 3-2 14%); HLE win 39%. A sweep is the likeliest single score (2026 Bo5s ended 3-0 45% of the time, international ones 66%), but across the whole bracket the model expects most series not to be sweeps; see the expected mix on the bracket card.
- Exact-score odds
- 3-0:26.0% 0-3:13.2% 3-1:20.7% 1-3:14.0% 3-2:14.2% 2-3:11.9%
- Key matchup
- Bot lane: Ruler (31.7% damage, 25.4% gold share) vs Gumayusi (27.5% damage), and the two best supports in the LCK by kill participation (Duro 79.7%, Delight 76%). Top: Kiin (+354 GD@15) vs Zeus (-170 GD@15 in the playoff sample) is GEN's clearest edge.
- Draft angle
- Fourth Bo5 between them this year; both drafts are fully scouted. HLE's Camille/Vi get banned against them 53% of the time; GEN's opponents target Olaf/Cassiopeia/Ezreal. Fearless depth favours GEN's wider pools (Ruler 10 champions in 11 games).
- Form and context
- 2026 head-to-head: GEN 3-1 HLE in the LCK upper final (05/09) and 3-1 in the Grand Final (13/09); HLE's two game wins both came from Baron fights. HLE are MSI champions; GEN missed MSI.
- What flips it
- Baron. Both of HLE's wins over GEN this year were late Baron fights, and HLE also won the MSI final on a Kanavi steal. A Brooklyn final decided around the pit is HLE's path.
| GEN | 2026 season | HLE |
|---|---|---|
| 94W-44L | Record | 104W-64L |
| 68.1% | Win rate | 61.9% |
| 76.5% | Blue side | 65.8% |
| 56.1% | Red side | 58.4% |
| +444 | GD@15 | +668 |
| 47.1% | First blood | 56.5% |
| 60.3% | Dragon share | 53.6% |
| 65.9% | Baron share | 60.7% |
| 31.7 min | Avg game | 31.1 min |
Predicted 15/10/2026 17:08:19 NZDT. Exact scores list the left team first. Sources (accessed 15/10/2026): sheepesports.com, gosugamers.net, dotesports.com, gol.gg
Pick'Ems
Knockouts picks not available yet.
Expected vs actual
0 of 7 Bo5s decidedAcross these 7 series the model expects about 2.1 sweeps, 1.5 3-1s, 1.0 3-2s and 2.5 upsets. A sweep is the single most likely score in most matchups, but most series are still expected not to be sweeps. Check against 2026: of 178 Bo5s predicted walk-forward, 44% ended 3-0, 31% 3-1 and 25% 3-2, and 3-0 was the most common result at every favourite strength (model/sweep_check.py).
Expected vs actual
0 of 7 Bo5s decidedAcross these 7 series the model expects about 2.1 sweeps, 1.5 3-1s, 1.0 3-2s and 2.5 upsets. A sweep is the single most likely score in most matchups, but most series are still expected not to be sweeps. Check against 2026: of 178 Bo5s predicted walk-forward, 44% ended 3-0, 31% 3-1 and 25% 3-2, and 3-0 was the most common result at every favourite strength (model/sweep_check.py).